What To Do When Faced with Bear Market Rallies

Look beyond the emotional headlines and study the hard facts aboutbears 

The real value of a bear market may be that it gives investors, who are temporarily frozen within its grip, the opportunity to learn or relearn important lessons regarding risk and diversification. For savvy investors, a bear market also creates a period for looking beyond emotional headlines and studying the hard facts – facts that can ultimately place them in a position to take advantage of coming opportunities.

Periods of falling equity prices are a natural part of investing in the stock market. Bear markets follow bull markets, and vice versa. They are considered the “ebb and flow” of wealth accumulation.

Balance Your Anxiety with Reason

Bear markets create apprehension in the minds of many people. That’s natural. However, any feelings of anxiety should be balanced with reason for anyone seeking financial independence. Anyone dubious about the need for a stable outlook should consider that virtually every bear market was followed by a better than average annual rate of return from the bull market.

But just as importantly, bear markets have also at times delivered very healthy returns while the bear was on the prowl. And trying to predict when those healthy returns might take place is almost impossible.

Bear Market Rallies

Previous bear markets have delivered some very significant rallies. And while they did not predict the end of the bear’s reign, these rallies do provide good reasons to remain invested.

Bear Market	Bear Market Rallies	Gain	# of Days Until Eventual Market Bottom
Oct '07 - Mar '09	Nov '08 - Jan '09	24.2%	42
	Mar '08 - May '08	12.0%	202
Mar '00 - Oct '02	Jul '02 - Aug '02	20.7%	33
	Sep '01 - Jan '02	21.4%	192
	Apr '01 - May '01	19.0%	346
Nov '80 - Aug '82	Mar '82 - May '82	11.3%	67
	Sep '81 - Nov '81	12.0%	177
Jan '73 - Oct '74	Feb '74 - Mar '74	10.0%	143
	Dec '73 - Jan '74	8.3%	190

 

Focus on Five Lessons

Instead of taking a “time out” from the market, and missing out on potential opportunities, investors should focus on five key lessons the market has repeatedly been trying to teach everyone during its naturally occurring economic cycles:

1.     Periods of falling prices are a common part of investing in the stock market.

2.     An investment’s value will be greatly influenced by fundamental factors, such as profit and revenue growth.

3.     Diversification, while it does not assure against market loss, often provides a safe haven against the ebb and flow of changing markets.

4.     Invest over time, rather than make single lump-sum purchases. (Falling stock prices are the friends of dollar cost averaging investors.) Of course dollar cost averaging does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market and it’s important that investors continue investing through fluctuating market conditions.

5.     Take a long-term view when investing in the stock market. Short-term fluctuations are natural. (The investment price and underlying business often have little to do with each other over the short term.)

Remember that you’ll be inundated with all kinds of economic information during both bear and bull markets. There will be reports, for example, about inflation, interest rates, and unemployment figures that may entice you to either give up on the stock market or invest in it to the exclusion of investments paying relatively smaller returns. To avoid being lured to either extreme, develop a financial strategy that accounts for risks you find comfortable.

Review your investments on a regular basis to help ensure they are still relevant to your overall financial plan, and that you’re staying on track.

Then trust yourself and stick with your plan. 

 

Important Disclosures

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in price levels of such securities. An investor should consider their ability to continue purchasing through fluctuating price levels. Such a plan does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This article was prepared by FMeX.

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